This free tool reads your numbers the way a bank’s credit team will — and gives you a plain-English Bank-Readiness Band before you sit down for a facility conversation. It is an informational readiness check, not a credit rating.
| Line item | Y0 (latest) | Y-1 | Y-2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Statement basis (source of the figures) | |||
| Income statement | |||
| Revenue | |||
| EBITDA | |||
| EBIT (operating profit) | |||
| Interest expense | |||
| Tax expense | |||
| Net income | |||
| Share of associate / JV profit (holdco) | |||
| Balance sheet | |||
| Total assets | |||
| Current assets | |||
| Cash & equivalents | |||
| Inventory | |||
| Current liabilities | |||
| Short-term debt | |||
| Long-term debt | |||
| Total equity | |||
| Retained earnings | |||
| Market capitalisation (listed only) | |||
| Cash flow statement | |||
| Cash flow from operations (CFO) | |||
| Capital expenditure (CapEx) | |||
| Dividends paid | |||
| Date | Company | Segment | S&P-eq. | Moody’s-eq. | Ind. PD | Score |
|---|
The model is a transparent scorecard, not a black-box machine learning predictor. That’s deliberate. Banks like MCB, SBM and Absa Mauritius operate under Basel III; their Internal Ratings-Based (IRB) models must be defensible to the Bank of Mauritius (BoM). Every notch must trace back to an input. Machine learning earns its place only once hundreds of labelled outcomes exist to train on — until then, a transparent scorecard is the more defensible and trustworthy choice.
| Component | Large Corporate | SME |
|---|---|---|
| Financial Risk Profile | 60% | 45% |
| Business Risk Profile | 40% | 55% |
SMEs get a lower financial weight because their reported numbers are noisier (smaller audit footprint, owner-manager overlap, tax-driven accounting) — so judgement on management, customer concentration and banking history carries more weight.
| Ratio | What it measures | Investment-grade threshold |
|---|---|---|
| FFO / Debt | Cash flow leverage | > 30% |
| Debt / EBITDA | Leverage multiple | < 3.0× |
| FFO / Interest | Cash interest coverage | > 6× |
| EBITDA / Interest | Earnings coverage | > 4× |
| FCF / Debt | Free cash leverage | > 15% |
| Debt / Capital | Capital structure | < 45% |
| EBITDA margin | Operating efficiency | > 18% |
| Return on capital | Capital productivity | > 10% |
| Current ratio | Short-term liquidity | > 1.5× |
| Quick ratio | Acid-test liquidity | > 1.0× |
| Cash / Short-term debt | Refinancing cushion | > 0.5× |
FFO = Funds From Operations = CFO before working capital changes. We approximate it as
CFO + interest expense × (1 − tax rate) when the user supplies CFO; otherwise as
EBITDA − interest − taxes. The score for each ratio is interpolated linearly between
B3’s calibrated thresholds, then weighted.
Each qualitative factor is mapped to a 0–100 score on a five-point scale:
Excellent=95, Strong=80, Satisfactory=60, Weak=35, Vulnerable=15.
For risk factors (industry, country) the scale is inverted: Low=95 … Very High=15.
We use the emerging-market variant of Altman’s Z-score (Altman, Hartzell, Peck 1995), which removes the sales/assets term and the equity market value:
Z″ = 3.25 + 6.56 · (WC/TA) + 3.26 · (RE/TA) + 6.72 · (EBIT/TA) + 1.05 · (Equity/Total Liab)
Zones: Safe Z > 2.6 · Grey 1.1 ≤ Z ≤ 2.6 · Distress Z < 1.1. If the scorecard rating disagrees with Altman by more than two letter notches we surface the disagreement in the notching log so the analyst can investigate.
Mauritius carries an investment-grade sovereign profile (broadly BBB− / Baa3 territory, stable). By default, foreign-currency obligations of a Mauritian corporate are held at the sovereign ceiling; local-currency obligations may sit one notch above. This is a soft cap — the platform applies it automatically and logs it.
| Composite score | Indicative global band | Alt. notation | 1-yr PD (indicative) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95 – 100 | AAA | Aaa | 0.01% |
| 90 – 94 | AA+ | Aa1 | 0.02% |
| 87 – 89 | AA | Aa2 | 0.03% |
| 84 – 86 | AA− | Aa3 | 0.04% |
| 80 – 83 | A+ | A1 | 0.06% |
| 77 – 79 | A | A2 | 0.08% |
| 73 – 76 | A− | A3 | 0.10% |
| 69 – 72 | BBB+ | Baa1 | 0.16% |
| 65 – 68 | BBB | Baa2 | 0.20% |
| 60 – 64 | BBB− | Baa3 | 0.30% |
| 55 – 59 | BB+ | Ba1 | 0.55% |
| 50 – 54 | BB | Ba2 | 0.85% |
| 45 – 49 | BB− | Ba3 | 1.50% |
| 40 – 44 | B+ | B1 | 3.00% |
| 35 – 39 | B | B2 | 5.00% |
| 30 – 34 | B− | B3 | 8.00% |
| 25 – 29 | CCC+ | Caa1 | 15.00% |
| 20 – 24 | CCC | Caa2 | 25.00% |
| 15 – 19 | CCC− | Caa3 | 35.00% |
| 10 – 14 | CC | Ca | 45.00% |
| 5 – 9 | C | C | 55.00% |
| 0 – 4 | D | D | 100.00% |
The generic scorecard can be overridden by a sector template that re-weights the ratios and adds
sector-specific factors. Hospitality & Tourism is the first: it drops the quick ratio (hotels
hold little inventory), lifts the weight on leverage and fixed-charge coverage (high operating leverage),
and adds six factors — occupancy, RevPAR trend, seasonality,
source-market concentration, asset quality / refurbishment and
brand / management contract. The financial/business split still follows the segment
(Large 60/40, SME 45/55). More sectors (sugar/agro, property) can be added the same way.
B3’s scorecard is calibrated to a global scale and sovereign-capped to reflect Mauritius country risk. Because domestic (national-scale) benchmarks are measured on a different basis — relative to the strongest local credits, and so typically several notches higher — they are not directly comparable to a global-scale output. Validation therefore focuses on rank-ordering: whether the engine consistently places stronger credits above weaker ones, rather than matching any single external notch. The companion backtest tools (adviser-only) track this discrimination over time.
Every adviser-saved assessment is retained so the model can learn from real results over time. Once a sufficient set of labelled outcomes exists (whether a facility performed or defaulted within roughly 12 months), the ratio weights can be re-fitted statistically; with a larger sample, a second model can run alongside the scorecard purely as a disagreement flag for adviser review. Until that evidence base is built, B3’s transparent scorecard remains authoritative.